We have completed our three main stages of capital budgeting analysis, including
calculation of discounted cash flows.
next step is to apply some economic criteria for evaluating
project. We will use three criteria: Net Present Value, Modified Internal Rate of Return, and Discounted Payback Period.
Net Present Value
first criterion we will use to evaluate capital projects is Net Present Value. Net Present Value (NPV) is
total net present value of
the project. It represents
the total value added or subtracted from
organization if we invest in this project. We can refer back to our previous example and calculate Net Present Value.
If
Net Present Value is positive, we should proceed and make
the investment. If
the Net Present Value is negative (as is
case in Example 10), then we would not make
the investment.
Modified Internal Rate of Return
Besides determining
Net Present Value of a project, we can calculate
the rate of return earned by
the project. This is called
Internal Rate of Return. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is one of
most popular economic criteria for evaluating capital projects since managers can identify with rates of return. Internal Rate of Return is calculating by finding
the discount rate whereby
Net Investment amount equals
the total present value of all cash inflows; i.e. Net Present Value = 0. If we have equal cash inflows each year, we can solve for IRR easily.
If
Internal Rate of Return were higher than our
cost of capital, then we would accept this project. In our example,
IRR (6.43%) is less than our
cost of capital (12%). Therefore, we would not invest in this project. One of
problems with IRR is
the so-called reinvestment rate assumption. IRR makes
assumption that every year you will be able to earn
the IRR each time you reinvest your cash inflows. This assumption can result in some major distortions between Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return. We will correct this distortion by modifying our IRR calculation.
In order to eliminate
the reinvestment rate assumption, we will modify
Internal Rate of Return so that
reinvestment rate is our
cost of capital. This will give us a more accurate IRR for our project. Fortunately, we can use spreadsheets like Microsoft Excel to calculate Modified Internal Rate of Return.
Discounted Payback Period
final economic criteria we will use is
the Discounted Payback Period. Payback refers to
the number of years it takes to recover our net investment. In our previous example (Example 6), we could use a simple payback calculation as follows:
$ 24,100 / $ 5,788 = 4.2 years
However, this method does not recognize
time value of money and as we previously indicated, we must consider
time value of money because of inflation, uncertainty, and opportunity costs. Therefore, we will use
the discounted cash flows to calculate
payback period (discounted payback period).
Under
Discounted Payback Period, we would never receive a payback on our project; i.e.
total to date present cash flows never reached $ 24,100 (net investment). If we had relied on
the regular payback calculation, we would falsely assume that this project does payback in
fourth year.
In summary, we use economic criteria that have realistic economic assumptions about capital investments. Three economic criteria that meet this test are:
- Net Present Value
- Modified Internal Rate of Return
- Discounted Payback Period
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